Recently Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh issued a stern warning to Pakistan at Bhuj Military station, Gujarat. He asserted that 'any misadventure in the Sir Creek sector will invite a decisive response.' He further remarked, 'Pakistan must remember that the road to Karachi passes through the Creek.' His statement was based on Indian intelligence reports showing Pakistan’s heavy military activity in areas adjoining Sir Creek. Sir Creek is a 96-km-long, largely inaccessible estuary between Gujarat in India and Sindh in Pakistan rich in oil and gas reserves. Karachi port in Pakistan and Gautam Adani owned Mudra port in India are within reach of Sir Creek. On 3 Oct, Indian Army chief General Upendra Dwivedi said, ‘If Pakistan wants to maintain a place in world geography, it must stop state-sponsored terrorism.’ The build up is post Operation Sindoor (vermillion mark) in which China and Turkey supported Pakistan. It is on the back of a recent defence pact between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia in which both nations said an attack on either of them would be considered ’an aggression against both’. For over a decade now India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has targeted Pakistan. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and many of his ministers have foul-mouthed Pakistan to whip hysteria among their domestic constituency—Hindi speaking central India. In any eventuality of war, not Gujarat, but Panjab and Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) are the theatres of war. BJP’s core constituency is not moved by what happens to Panjab and J&K. Knowing Modi is partisan towards Gujarat, his home state, and protective about Adani and Anil Ambani, this time Pakistan has struck close to his home turf, at the interests of the oligarchs. On 4 Oct, Pakistan Army said that it noted with 'grave concern' India's 'delusional, provocative, and jingoistic statements'. Field Marshal Asim Munir warned a future conflict can lead to a ‘cataclysmic devastation’ and claimed the Pakistani armed forces can ‘take the fight to every nook and corner of the enemy’s territory’. Though most of this is sabre rattling from both sides, the Indian anxiety betrays its vulnerability (earlier coverage).

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