Executive Summary

Post-Green Revolution, agriculture in Panjab—the ‘Breadbasket of India’—is in deep crisis and the region’s land, air, and water are devastated. Food security for India and the world is precarious amid two ongoing wars. Given these conditions, the report recommends constructive sustainable solutions for consideration by the panel instituted by the Supreme Court of India to look into solutions for farmers and agriculture.

1.0 Introduction

In 2024, in Panjab—a state in the northwest of India—the paddy harvest season started on 1 Oct. The union government of India was expecting 12.4 Million Metric Ton (MMT) of rice, which translates to 18.5 MMT of paddy from Panjab. The government declared its agencies would procure every grain of paddy without any restrictions. Yet, from the middle of October, Panjab’s entire agrarian ecosystem—farmers, farm workers, commission agents, and millers—were up in arms, protesting, blocking highways for limited hours each day, and demanding paddy procurement. The reason for the protest was that Panjab’s total covered storage capacity is 16.5 MT. In this lay 9.8 MMT of wheat and 7.5 MMT of rice from the procurement in 2023. The storage was full to the brim. The railways had simply not moved the stored grain to the rest of India. There was no room to store the new paddy.

On 11 Oct, a report said only 4.3% of paddy that had arrived in grain markets had been procured and lifted to the mills. A 25 Oct report said only 22% of paddy had been harvested. By the end of October, news was that the union government had acquired 20% less paddy in 2024. The delay proved costly because grain stored in open markets gathers moisture, bringing down its rates for farmers and the wheat sowing cycle starts in a week. Ironically, in 1999 paddy procurement had become a huge issue in Panjab due to high moisture content in grain. That fiasco has repeated again. Paddy stood in fields in November 2024, wheat could not be sowed. and the final paddy output was 17.2 MMT, which was more than 1 MMT short of the original target. India is the second largest producer of wheat in the world. Paddy in this harvest cycle and wheat in the next spring harvest cycle are jeopardizing both Panjab’s pre-eminent position in contributing to the central grain pool and India's pre-eminent position as a producer of grains in the world.

2.0 Background

All of the Indian (East) Panjab region (after 1966 it excludes Haryana and parts of Himachal Pradesh) is called the ‘breadbasket of India.’ The tag was attributed to Panjab when in the late 1960s the Indian government ushered in the Green Revolution. India felt the need for the Green Revolution when in the late 1950s it faced an acute food crisis. Haunted by the Great Bengal Famine in 1943 in which about three million people died due to the British government’s wartime ‘scorched earth’ policies, India requested international aid. The United States provided aid under Public Law 480 but that proved to be a drain on India’s treasury and the wheat coming in was rotten. At that time Mexican scientist Dr. Norman Borlaug invented dwarf-quality wheat and, aided by technology and fertilizers, the crop showed great promise. Similarly, a rice strain was sourced from Indonesia, Taiwan, and China. Though paddy wasn’t Panjab’s native crop, the farmers of Panjab were encouraged to grow rice.

Panjab was chosen for the Green Revolution because, under colonial rule, the British transformed the landscape of the undivided Panjab. Once Panjab was colonized in 1849, from 1870 onward, the British linked the rivers and laid out the Canal Colonies moving populations from Hoshiarpur and Gurdaspur to Chunian, Nili Bar, Lower Bari Doab, Sidhnai, and other regions. That is how Panjab became the ‘Granary of the Empire.’ Though after the Partition of Panjab in 1947, most of those colonies went to Pakistan, the Indian government selected East Panjab for its relative to rest of India, still better irrigated lands, its conducive climactic conditions, its chief minister Pratap Singh Kairon’s efforts, along with a few other regions such as deltaic Tamil Nadu and later coastal Andhra Pradesh. Panjab proved true to the faith placed in it.

The contribution of wheat to the central pool increased from 59.1% in 1967-68 to 73% in 1979-80 and declined to 51.3% in 2021-22. The contribution of rice—not a native crop of Panjab—to the central pool increased from 7.4% in 1967-68 to 59.7% in 1979-80 and declined to 21.2% in 2021-22.

3.0 Panjab Agriculture Report

From the 1980s onward, the environmental consequences of high resource and fossil-fuel intensive agricultural model became increasingly apparent resulting in degradation of the soil and air and alarming rates of decline in the underground water tables. The high-input intensive model indebted a vast section of the farmers and impoverished the smaller and marginal farmers. In the 1980s, over religio-social factors, Panjab spiralled into militancy, did not have an elected state government, and the union government did not pay adequate attention though there are pockets of prosperity through largely individual initiative. For three decades now, though there is a state government, the framework for agriculture has not addressed the surfacing distress in the sector, pushing the sector towards poverty. Panjab government’s recently released Agricultural Policy, 2023 document says:

‘The ongoing intensive agriculture model, which is presently pursued as a modern mode of agricultural production with a policy-price push, is a highly resource intensive and a distorting system. It is promoting crops against their natural habitat requiring heavy chemical inputs resulting in low quality produce with higher costs. This intensive model affects people’s health and farmers’ profitability leading to debt, depression and suicides. In the past, farmers were allured for higher productivity to feed the nation, compromising the quality of produce, thus breaking nature’s limits and balances with the support of narrow and fragmented application of science. Such increases in productivity with chemical supported intensive agriculture models, which were divorced from the holistic science context, squeezed and polluted the natural resources. Higher productivity increased supplies of produce in the market leading to price falls owing to absence of advance planning of production as per market demand.

The issue with chemical fertilizer-based farming is the indiscriminate use and in distorted ratios. For example, the recommended Nitrogen, Phosphorus, Potassium (NPK) ratio is 4:2:1 while in Panjab it is 36:9:1. This ratio is distorted mainly due to the state's retreat from subsidising Phosphorus and Potassium fertilisers leading to over-dependence and indiscriminate use of only Nitrogen based fertilisers such as Urea. The resultant food produced is full of chemicals while cancer, respiratory and bone issues, and asthma are on the rise. Once known as the ‘breadbasket of India,’ Panjab is now called the ‘cancer capital of India.’

4.0 Aftermath of the Green Revolution

4.1 Some Facts

1. The core issue is that profitability is on decline. The input cost of agriculture is greater than the output profit received by the farmer for the produce. Because the cost of input is higher, to bolster farmer income, the Swaminathan Commission (2004-06) advised the union government to raise the Minimum Support Price (MSP)—the minimum price paid for a crop—to at least 50% above the weighted average cost of production. Also known as the C2+50% formula, it includes the input cost of capital, land rent, imputed cost of capital, along with the actual paid out input costs and the imputed cost of using family labour (called ‘C2’) to give farmers 50% returns. Instead, the government proposed a new formula: A2+FL, which lowers the MSP significantly. A2+FL is the cost incurred by the farmer and the value of family labor. The government wants to keep prices suppressed because a rise in prices would cause inflation.
2. Partly due to declining profitability as well as staggered nature of agricultural incomes, farmers often take loans to address their immediate expenses. As a result, an average rural farmer in Panjab was one of the most indebted in India. At the same time, the incomes and employment of laborers are often fluctuating and precarious, forcing them to depend on loans, even for basic consumption needs. They too resort to loans. The loans are both used for agricultural and often non-agricultural purposes. For example, a family member’s sickness, a child’s school fees, and so on. These loans are of two types: institutional—banks, cooperative societies, government schemes—and non-institutional—commission agents, local loan sharks, and informal borrowing. Since neither farmer nor laborer has enough income, they are unable to pay loans and their interest keeps rising. At present, the overall loan burden on farmers and laborers is ₹100,000 crore (USD 12B).
3. The loans and high rates of interest keep small and marginal farmers and daily wage-earning laborers in near-perpetual debt. With farmers, the threat is on their land being auctioned. Laborers have no assets and are under constant threat of jail or meager assets being snatched. The threats take a toll, pushing farmers and laborers to suicide. In 2018 the suicide count was 16,594 and by now would have crossed 20,000.

4.2 The Effect of Breakdown of Farming is Borne by the Land

4. Between 2000-2019 the average groundwater depletion in Panjab was about 8.91 m. Despite an extensive canal network across the state, about 73% of water for irrigation is supplied from groundwater. To conserve water, the government enacted The Preservation of Subsoil Water Act, 2009. This delayed paddy harvesting and delayed the wheat planting cycle in 2024. Out of 138 administrative blocks, 108 blocks are in the over-exploited category. According to the latest news groundwater extraction has reached 164% in Panjab and 136% in neighboring Haryana.
5. Declining groundwater levels in Panjab are diminishing wetlands, reducing base flow to rivers, degrading water quality, and reducing soil moisture—thus threatening environmental sustainability. A Panjab state legislature committee has said that if the present trend of drawing water from underground aquifers continues, the state will turn into a desert in the next 25 years.
6. Since the window between paddy harvest and wheat plantation is very small, and most harvest is through combine harvesters, farmers need to manage the paddy stubble straw. Many mechanisms have been introduced over time but seasonal stubble burning continues and pollutes the air. 
7. Among Indian states, pesticide use in Panjab is the highest and about 75% of pesticides are used by the Malwa region. In the last 10 years, this usage has gone up three times. In 2023-24, Panjab used 247.61 kg of fertilizer per hectare, which is almost double the national average of 139.81 kg per hectare. Another report suggests Panjab uses 76% more fertilizer than the national average. These pesticides and fertilizers contaminate soil and water.

The dominant sentiment among farmers over the apathy towards the aftermath of the Green Revolution is that ‘agriculture is no longer profitable’ and ‘we are India’s food-producing colony’. From time to time, Indian farmers have raised the issue of legal MSP for their produce, but the government has not granted it. While Panjab and Haryana get MSP for wheat, rice, cotton, and sugarcane, it remains a convention, not a law. The government is forced to give that MSP to some farmers because Article 21 of the Indian Constitution provides the fundamental right to the protection of life and personal liberty. The Article mandates the state to ensure the right to life of its citizens. The MSP the government is forced to give farmers for their produce goes into rations for India’s poorer citizens. This is a fulfillment of the Constitutional requirement, not a relief or special benefit to farmers. For the next five years, the incumbent government has promised free rations to over 800M citizens through its public distribution system. That project is now in jeopardy.

While both the union and state governments are responsible for this sense of despair and alienation, the failure is also linked to international circumstances. The General Trade and Tariff Agreement Uruguay Round (1986-1993) decided to bring agriculture and artisanal products worldwide under its ambit. This gave rise to the World Trade Organization (WTO), which entered agreements with governments of different countries and mandated curbs on what those governments could and could not offer to their farmers and artisans as subsidies. India was a signatory to it. That is why in 2024, some of the WTO nations issued a counter-notification to India on farm subsidies for 2021-23, alleging that India 'dramatically under-reported' the value of the subsidy it offered farmers through the MSP program. Developed countries oppose price  incentives and subsidies to the agricultural sector—they are fine with subsidies in the forms of cash transfers. That other countries can dictate India's MSP is an infringement on India's rights to make decisions for its citizens.

The repercussions of policy failure at the union and state levels are beyond agriculture. Agriculture is Panjab’s primary industry. The cultivable area in Panjab is 4.20 million hectares, which is 83.4% of the state’s total geographical area. Almost all of Panjab practices double cropping, so land use is close to 200%. According to the 2011 census, about 35.5% of the rural population of Panjab is dependent on agriculture. When the sector is failing, the region is eroded beyond repair, the policy failure becomes a question of the region’s very existence. The question becomes civilizational—will there be a Panjab? What will be left of it?

That is why to rethink Panjab’s agriculture to save its farmers, its workers, the secondary industries, and Panjab itself.

5.0 Geo-Politics & Agriculture

At present, two major conflicts going on in the world also adversely impact Panjab’s wheat sales. Wheat prices are poised for a steady rise driven by heightened geopolitical tensions, and exacerbated by extreme weather conditions. Both frost and droughts have led to a reduction in wheat stockpiles, with uncertainty around crop conditions and export demands. The Russia-Ukraine war has resulted in attacks on crucial grain hubs, the disruption of supply chains, low global stockpiles, and the rise of global wheat prices. The sea channels for the supply of wheat have been blocked and bombarded by Russia. This has led to a worldwide rise in wheat prices with a spike in 2021. The Indian government understands this, and so do Indian businesses and farmers. Yet, through 2024, India has been banning exports in an unplanned manner, causing fluctuations in the global market. For example, India imposed a ban on non-basmati rice in July 2023 leading to a rise in the price index for the first time in 12 years. This led to 200 KT of rice being stuck in Indian ports. The decision had a global impact, most so in Africa which is the major importer of rice from India. Expecting a bumper harvest, India lifted the ban in September 2024. However, procurement has suffered Oct-Nov 2024. In August 2023, India imposed a 40% duty on onion export until 31 Dec 2023. When farmers protested, the government procured onions to hoard the vegetables, thus causing a price hike. Such restrictions lead to uncertainty among farmers, traders, and exporters. 

The main wheat-producing regions in India are Panjab and Haryana. In spring 2024, the two Indian states contributed up to 75% of wheat to India’s central pool. Wheat production in one major Indian state—Madhya Pradesh—failed to reach its target. This has caused a shortfall in procurement 26.6 MMT vis-a-vis estimated targets 37.3 MMT. In June 2024, India’s wheat stocks were at a 16-year low. In the summer of 2014, there were multiple reports on India planning to import wheat, though it has not done so yet. However, in 2024, with late sowing, and early summers due to weather changes, it is not certain Panjab will be able to produce the required wheat and will end up importing wheat reversing the trend from supplying wheat to the world to acquiring it to shore up its buffer stock.  

Israel’s war with Gaza, Lebanon, Iran, and others adversely affected India’s rice exports. India is the world’s largest exporter of Basmati rice, of which Panjab accounts for 40%. Approximately 25% of India’s Basmati rice exports are directed to Iran. Iran has imposed a two-month import ban from 21 Oct to 21 Dec 2024 to support its local crop, disrupting the significant export channel. Exports are likely to decline, affecting the industry’s stability. Recently, India’s pulse and lentil import reached a 6-year high of USD 3.75B. One of the major contributors is Canada—contributing around 22%—and with ties between the two countries going further southwards, trade will suffer, causing a shortfall in India.

The Indian farmer is in distress as evidenced by the Farmers’ Protests 2020-21 and again in 2024, and close to 400K suicides in the last 25 years. An additional issue impacts the Panjab farmers in 2025—the availability of fertilizers. The union government has implemented a 27% slash in subsidies for fertilizers, causing scarcity. In both 2024 and 2025, Panjab is facing a shortage of Diammonium Phosphate (DAP), a fertilizer needed for sowing wheat and mustard. The need is 550 KT of DAP for sowing wheat. 

6.0 Suggestions

Recently, the Supreme Court of India has formed a committee to look into agricultural issues and make recommendations. Here are a couple of considerations for the committee. 

6.1 Price Index

While the Swaminathan Committee recommended the C2+50% formula for 23 crops and the government has not implemented it, recall that recommendation came nearly two decades back. Much has further slipped in the agrarian system. To even start the process of bettering prices of commodities to farmers, India will have to walk out of the World Trade Organization’s Agreement on Agriculture treaty which limits subsidies on agriculture to 10-15% of Gross Domestic Product. Once that is done, there is a Wholesale Price Index, there is a need for a transparent Producer Price Index for the entire agrarian industry, for every kind of produce, as is prevalent in many countries. The Index must take into account shifts in prices over months and regions. The government already procures various kinds of farm produce; the call is for the government to step in to cover shortfalls when they occur for all produce. The point of the Index structure is to arrive at price stabilization so that massive inflations and deflations can be checked. MSP is one part of such a system.

6.2 Support for Input Costs

There is a dire need to improve input cost support and subsidies to farmers. India has an extensive co-operative society marred by corruption and mal-governance. If that is eliminated or reduced, it is possible to utilize them to support farmers. Especially the smaller farmers who can then continue to remain in agriculture. The driver is to return to the low-cost agrarian production while ensuring that the production is attuned to the agro-ecological needs of Panjab and then India. At the same time, increase agricultural wages of the workers through grants as the workers are equally affected by the decline in availability of agricultural work and a stagnation of wage rates.

6.3 Agro Processing Units

There is a huge difference between the price at which farmers sell raw produce and consumers buy processed produce. This is because farmers usually sell produce in the market, and government and private players pick it up. The government uses it for its ration schemes, and private players process it before selling it and making money on that. Most of the agro-processing industry for Panjab’s produce is outside the state. This means while farmers do not make much money, corporations who are in other states make all the money. If the Panjab government can encourage and fund village cooperatives to own food processing, that would bring in both employment as well as income to the farmers and labor in Panjab. This would need initial investment and a network of supply and distribution. Other states do it for their products—there is no reason why Panjab cannot do it.

6.4 Public Distribution System

In order to provide MSP the state can increase the diversity of the crops its procures. In Panjab, the diversity is limited to wheat, rice, cotton, and sugarcane. In 2023, mung beans was added but dropped in 2024. Instead, if the state were to link procurement of farm produce with the Public Distribution System (PDS), and provide the population a variety of produce through the PDS system, it would benefit both farmers and consumers. For example, the PDS system was to include pulses and millets. The produce list could be region or state-wise derived from the nutritional needs of the poorest and the most undernourished populations. That will also be a federal system allowing the state to play a greater role in agriculture.

6.5 Three to Five-Year Support to Diversification

Panjab’s land, water, and air are all gravely polluted. To regain their strength and nutritional value, they must get space to recover. Only then can Panjab move towards diversification of crops. The biggest stumbling block in allowing land to recover and successfully diversifying crops from non-native paddy is that land holdings are small and marginal, and debts are high. Do not expect a small farmer, drowning in debt, to be able to make the decision to not cultivate their land, leave it for a year or more so its chemical load decreases. This is where there is an explicit need to support the small farmers, waive off their loans, aid the farmers with expenses, and then encourage them to grow a different crop with the assurance that the government will buy them without reservation. For a few years, the quantity of crops being bought off from the farmers needs to prevail upon the quality of the crops. If the crop is bad, it can be used for non-food purposes. The project could be initiated on an experimental basis and gradually expanded with learnings.

6.6 Canal Water to all Farmers

Indian (East) Panjab has three rivers and 14,500 kms of canals. Yet, its groundwater remains over-exploited through more than 1.4M tubewells. This creates the near-perennial issue of electricity usage, subsidies on it, and conflicts over meters and bills. Electricity issues that plague Panjab for the last half-century can be addressed by repairing the last-mile connectivity of the canals to the farmlands. In the 1960s-70s, Panjab built a robust network of smaller canals that took water to individual farms. The need is to unclog small canals, repair them, restore them, and ensure water reaches farmers. The farmers’ dependence on electricity and tubewells will reduce and Panjab will prevent its desertification.

6.7 Natural Farming Classification

Given the degradation of Panjab’s water, soil, and air, the only way to restore their properties is the move away from the Green Revolution model of chemical-and-machine-intensive farming. Panjab already has a nascent natural farming movement which is steadily growing. However, the model needs a system of classification of land and production based on how many years they have been chemical-free. At present, anyone who has been farming non-chemically for 2-20 years can claim to be a natural farmer. That needs to be graded by creating a systemic regulation framework that says how many years a land has been chemical-free, to what extent, and determines the price of its produce. This kind of transparency in the natural farming sector will go a long way in bringing consumer confidence to the movement and benefit the natural farmers.

7.0 Conclusion

The Union government of India shifted its attention away from the agricultural sector because agriculture’s contribution to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures reduced over the last few decades. In 1960-61, the contribution of agriculture to GDP was 47.6%. Having gone down to 14.4% in 2010-11, by 2020-21 the contribution was 19.9% in part because of the COVID pandemic, when most other industries had frozen. Even at 15% average, it is one-third of the highs in the earlier decades. That is the reason the government, especially in a neo-liberal setup as prevails today, looks at sunshine industries like Information Technology or Pharmaceuticals and ignores agriculture. It is fine to chase profits but a large, diverse country such as India also has a commitment to its citizens. India’s agriculture sector provides livelihood to 42.8% of the population. This large section cannot be left to languish due to policy stagnation and lack of innovation. The hope is that the governments of India and its breadbasket Panjab will heed these suggestions and bring in reforms that will guarantee food security to the citizens of India and Panjab does not become a desert while playing its role globally.

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Author(s): Liv Forum Team

External Reviewer: Guarav Bansal

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