BJP’s Pyrrhic Election Victory

The Indian general election results trickled in late night on 4 Jun. The BJP is 32 seats short of a majority at 240 seats. The INC won 99 seats and 235 seats went to the INDIA bloc (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance - a coming together of 37 opposition parties). The major change was in Uttar Pradesh where INDIA bloc member Samajwadi Party (SP) won 37 seats. Though BJP's vote share (36.56%) remained the same as in 2019, Tamil Nadu kept the party out, and their seats were reduced in Maharashtra, West Bengal, Rajasthan, and Karnataka. Neither the Ram temple, nor further Hindu-Muslim polarization, nor free rations for 800M people the BJP banked on in the last decade worked for the party. High inflation, large-scale unemployment, and cronyism led people to vote for the opposition. On 5 Jun Narendra Modi will meet his allies in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) who have 292 seats to discuss forming the next govt. which would include intense wrangling and rob BJP leaders of key ministerial portfolios. The role of the kingmaker for the next govt. now falls to two of the BJP’s key allies – Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu. Their parties, Janata Dal (United) and Telugu Desam Party (TDP), have 12 and 16 seats respectively. Nitish Kumar is known to be a mercurial leader because of his frequent party-hopping. Naidu had earlier been put in prison by the BJP govt. The BJP has damaged its relationship with parent organization Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, who could ask for a change of leadership in the BJP. For now, the election is a victory for opposition parties who saw major erosion in the last decade and a semblance of restoration of democratic processes in the country. (SDW Vol 2 Issue 5, Story 9).

In a four-cornered contest in Panjab, the INC won seven of thirteen seats against the ruling AAP as well as BJP and SAD. The high-stakes elections in Panjab even saw two independents register victories. AAP won three seats, SAD won one seat, and the BJP drew a blank. The INC appears to have bounced back in the state's political landscape after suffering a defeat at the hands of the AAP in the 2022 Panjab Assembly elections. This election, the prominent winners are INC's Charanjit Singh Channi (Jalandhar), Amrinder Singh Raja Warring (Ludhiana), Sukhjinder Singh Randhawa (Gurdaspur), and one-time earlier Member of Parliament (MP) Dharamvira Gandhi (Patiala); SAD’s three-time MP Harsimrat Kaur Badal (Bathinda); AAP's Gurmeet Singh Meet Hayer (Sangrur); and two independents Amritpal Singh (Khadoor Sahib) and Sarbajeet Singh Khalsa (Faridkot). Major upsets in the poll outcome included BJP’s four-time MP Preneet Kaur, two-time MP Ravneet Singh Bittu, Sushil Rinku, one-time MP Hans Raj Hans, and Taranjit Singh Sandhu. It also included; SAD’s (Amritsar) Simranjit Singh Mann, INC's Sukhpal Singh Khaira and SAD's three-time MP Prem Singh Chandumajra and Daljit Singh Cheema. The INDIA bloc allies INC and AAP contested separately, against each other, while the BJP and SAD fought separately on their own for the first time since 1996. The result is a setback to the BJP, which even failed to retain its traditional seats, Gurdaspur and Hoshiarpur. With over a quarter of all votes for INC and AAP, the difference between them is very slim. INC got 26.30% and AAP got 26.02%. BJP with 18.56% votes edged SAD with 13.42% votes to fourth place. In 2019, the 13-seat distribution was as follows: INC, SAD, BJP (SAD ally), and AAP won 8, 2, 2, and 1, respectively. AAP’s only seat was Sangrur then.

Two independent candidates, Amritpal Singh and Sarabjeet Singh Khalsa, won the elections from Khadoor Sahib and Faridkot, respectively. Amritpal defeated INC’s Kulbir Singh Zira by a margin of 197K votes – the highest among the thirteen seats in the state. Amritpal is the chief of the Waris Punjab De outfit and has been lodged for over a year in Assam's Dibrugarh jail under the National Security Act. His work in Panjab started in late 2022 with the anti-drug campaign, amrit prachar (Sikh initiation ceremony), and grew strident over asking Sikhs to maintain their self-respect, hinting at Khalistan. Another independent candidate, Sarabjeet, son of Beant Singh, one of the two assassins of former PM Indira Gandhi, won from the Faridkot seat. He unsuccessfully fought the 2004 general elections from Bathinda on the SAD (Amritsar) ticket and the 2007 Panjab assembly elections from Bhadaur in Barnala. In 1989, Sarbeet’s mother Bimal Kaur Khalsa and grandfather Sucha Singh were both elected as Members of Parliament (MP) from Ropar and Bathinda, respectively  on SAD (Amritsar) tickets. Over time, Khalsa developed differences with Simranjit Singh Mann, head of SAD (Amritsar), and decided to contest independently. While both these wins might be considered a return to Panthic (Sikh community) politics, the reasons for these wins lie in public sympathy they could generate, overkill by security forces during Amritpal’s arrest in Mar to Apr 2023, unresolved Panjab issues which include the tenuous India-Panjab relationship, river waters issue, agrarian distress, drug abuse, human rights violations, and lack of faith in traditional parties. They point to a chasm in Sikh politics where no political party is able to voice Sikh concerns. Now the so-called hardliners have come in democratically. It remains to be seen whether they will be heard.

On 27 May, five days before Panjab’s 1 Jun general elections, thousands gathered in Barnala for a Lok Chetna (People Consciousness) rally, organized by 24 farmers and unions (labor and others) with the theme that people need not hold high expectations from electoral democracy. ‘Every five years, people elect governments. But do these governments fulfill the demands of the masses?’ asked Sukhdev Singh Kokrikalan, general secretary of the Bharatiya Kisan Union (BKU) Ugrahan. The rally's main organizer is the BKU Ugrahan, the state’s largest farmer union; other unions include the Punjab Khet Mazdoor Union (PKMU), Democratic Teachers Front (DTF), Punjab Students Union (Randhawa), Powercom and Transco Contract Employees Union, Water and Sanitation Contract Employees Union, Forest Mazdoor Union, and the Bhakra Beas Management Board Workers Union, Nangal. Digvijay Pal Sharma, state president of the DTF faction led by Sharma, said, ‘I got recruited in the education department in 2005 under the new pension scheme, and for years we have been struggling to get the old pension scheme reinstated. Four general and state elections have taken place since then but our demand hasn’t been fulfilled. The entire democratic set-up raises a question mark. For example, in 2014, Arun Jaitley lost the election in Amritsar but he was made a union minister.’ Lachhman Singh Sewewala, general secretary of PKMU, said, ‘In the present elections, in Panjab, nine MLAs are contesting the elections. Five of them are AAP ministers. If any of these win, there will be by-polls in Panjab. Who will bear the cost of this poll?’ (SDW Vol. 2 Issue 7, Story 2).

The BJP contested its first elections in Panjab since 1996 without its erstwhile ally SAD. In the past several elections, of the state’s 13 seats, the BJP always fought from three — Hoshiarpur, where it has won in the last two polls; Gurdaspur, which it has bagged five times since 1998; and Amritsar, where it has lost in the last three elections. Panjab BJP president Sunil Jakhar, who complained to the Election Commission of India (ECI) about his party candidates being allegedly denied their right to campaign, says this election is a stepping stone to the 2027 Panjab assembly polls. ‘The party will vastly improve its vote share this time and sweep the 2027 elections,’ he claimed. Jakhar’s hope is echoed by a section of the trading community across the Malwa region, especially in constituencies like Ludhiana, Bathinda, Sangrur, and Patiala. Bharat Jindal, a trader in Bathinda, expresses support for the BJP, saying ‘Modi has done wonders for the country, the world respects us.’ Sunil Singla, the BJP’s Bathinda office in-charge, says the party is seeing ‘green shoots of its recovery in villages.’ To offset the negative campaigning by farmer groups, the BJP reached out to the Dalit community. Despite having a 33% share in the state's electorate against 18% of Jats, Dalits are behind the dominant Jats in terms of political representation. BJP leaders canvassed among two dominant groups of Dalit voters in Panjab – Mazhabi Sikhs and the Valmikis (SDW Vol. 2 Issue 22, Story 1).

A report by Facebook and Instagram owner Meta says purported Sikh accounts on platforms such as Facebook, Instagram, Telegram, and X (formerly Twitter), criticized the Indian govt. across at least seven countries, including India, were traced back to China. Social media giant Meta recently identified and dismantled over sixty China-linked entities, including accounts, pages, and groups that disseminated and amplified coordinated inauthentic information in the lead-up to the general election in 2024. While Meta has removed these accounts, some of these accounts exist on X, with certain profiles being withheld in India but still operational in other jurisdictions. The identified accounts posted artificially manipulated media to incite pro-Khalistan protests in several countries. These accounts also used Artificial Intelligence (AI), often posting in Hindi and English, urging Western action against the Indian govt. On the other hand, The Guardian reports Meta approved a series of AI-manipulated political adverts during India’s election that spread disinformation and incited religious violence. Facebook approved ads containing known slurs towards Muslims in India as well as Hindu supremacist language and disinformation about political leaders. India Civil Watch International (ICWI) and Ekō, a corporate accountability organization created and submitted such ads to Meta’s ad library – the database of all ads on Facebook and Instagram – to test Meta’s mechanisms for detecting and blocking political content that could prove inflammatory or harmful during India’s six-week election. According to the report, all of the ads ‘were created based upon real hate speech and disinformation prevalent in India, underscoring the capacity of social media platforms to amplify existing harmful narratives.’

On 28 May, the Punjab and Haryana High Court acquitted Gurmeet Ram Rahim, head of Dera Sacha Sauda, on the murder of former Dera manager Ranjit Singh in 2002. However, he will remain imprisoned in a jail in Rohtak, Haryana, as a result of convictions in two other criminal cases. In Aug 2017, Gurmit was convicted of two counts of rape. In Jan 2019, he was convicted for the murder of journalist Ram Chander Chhatrapati. Apex Sikh body, the Shiromani Gurdwara Parbandhak Committee (SGPC) has termed the acquittal unfortunate. SGPC chief Harjinder Singh Dhami said that Gurmeet ‘with an immoral character and accused of hurting the religious sentiments of Sikhs should not receive any kind of relief.’ Dhami stated that the BJP-led govt. Of Haryana already has Gurmeet, the main accused in the 2015 case of sacrilege of Guru Granth Sahib, ignoring the norms; now the Ranjit Singh murder verdict is also unsatisfactory. The SGPC said they respect the courts but the SGPC, being a representative body of Sikhs, is ready to provide support to the family of Ranjit Singh in the murder case against Gurmeet (SDW Vol. 2 Issue 12, Story 6). Meanwhile, in Pilibhit, Uttar Pradesh (UP), the kidnapping and rape case of a minor daughter of a granthi has caused the head of the Akal Takht to issue an ultimatum to UP chief minister Yogi Adityanath to expedite the arrest of all accused, warning him that if police fail, the Sikh community will be forced to take action at its own level. 

Abu Dhabi-based Lulu Group International, one of the biggest retailers and known for its chain of shopping malls, hypermarkets, and food processing centers spread across the Middle East, Far East, and Africa, is starting a logistics and food processing center in Amritsar, Panjab. Lulu plays a significant role in marketing Indian agricultural products on a global stage. Their collaboration serves as a pivotal platform for Indian agricultural goods to gain visibility and accessibility in international markets, fostering greater trade opportunities and economic growth. In India, Lulu has its logistics and procurement centers in different states from where it annually exports $1.2B worth of more than 45,000 MT of agriculture and other products. Director Salim MA said, ‘Amritsar is known for its vibrant business environment and thriving Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs). The city will now be a part of our sourcing of local products which will greatly help SMEs, local farmers, agricultural cooperatives, and farmer’s producer organizations. Our Group intends to have a logistics and food processing center for the storage, processing, grading, and packing of various local agriculture and other produce.’ Agricultural processing is a dire need for Panjab and subsequent govs. have neglected the sector. Lulu had discussions with former Indian Ambassador Taranjit Singh Sandhu, a BJP candidate in Amritsar. Now that he has lost, how will this plan go forward? Even if it does, farmer unions will need to place conditions under which the corporation does not exploit farmers.

Hundreds of Indian students, including those from Panjab, in Prince Edward Island, a province in Canada, are protesting as they face deportation to India after a sudden change in provincial immigration rules. The students say they will continue to fight for their rights as it is a ‘now-or-never situation.’ Prince Edward Island recently changed the rules of its Provincial Nominee Programme (PNP) to reduce the number of immigrants as they were putting a strain on healthcare and housing infrastructure. The protesting Indians accuse the provincial govt. of suddenly changing immigration rules and refusing them work permits. The protestors are demanding an extension of work permits and a review of the recent changes to the policies. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), however, has stated that it has no reports or updates on the issue. ‘A large number of students have gone to Canada to study. The figure is pretty significant. But we haven't come across several students facing deportation...We do not have any updates on that. We are not aware. There may be one case here or one case there. But we don't see any major problem as far as students in Canada are concerned,’ said MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal in a media brief. From 28 May to 1 Jun, the students were on a hunger strike for four days. They paused their strike after meeting Jeff Young, the province's immigration director. One of the protesters said around 50 students had already left Canada.

The Sikh community has been residing in Bidar, Karnataka for 80 years, anchored by faith and belief in Guru Nanak Jhira Sahib Gurdwara. Facing a dwindling population due to a lack of educational and industrial opportunities, many are leaving Bidar for better prospects in bigger cities. That the Bidar Sikhs still hold a fair bit of clout at the elections is evident from the fact that come election season, parties and functionaries cutting across the political spectrum miss no opportunity to woo them. From a population close to 15,000 in the early 1980s to less than 5,000 now, the Sikh community has a dwindling presence here, with some even claiming that their numbers could be as low as 1,500 at present. Once a thriving educational hub for Sikhs who came to Bidar to pursue engineering and other degree courses, and a major pilgrimage center for Sikhs, the town has seen little improvement in terms of its infrastructure. This has resulted in an exodus of the younger generation of Sikhs. ‘While faith is our community’s central reason for residing in Bidar, lack of higher education opportunities and inadequate industrial development have forced many to leave the town in search of a better future in metropolises such as Hyderabad, Mumbai, Bengaluru, and Delhi, or [they] have traveled abroad,’ said Manpreet Singh, 55, a businessman and member of the Gurdwara executive committee. ‘In the last two years, the average age of the population of our community has gone up to about 65 years,’ added Manpreet, who believes he is a Kannadiga first and then a Sikh.