Modi Visits Panjab During Elections

On 23-24 May, Indian PM Narendra Modi visited Panjab to campaign for BJP. Farmer unions had declared they would boycott the speeches and not allow BJP workers to reach venues at Patiala, Gurdaspur, and Jalandhar. On the first day, Patiala became a fortress; 7,500 security personnel were deployed. Farmers were stopped at Rajpura toll plaza. Modi appeared in a saffron turban and invoked a personal connection with Sikhs saying he was a blood relation, as one of the originalPanj Pyare (five beloveds), Bhai Mohkam Singh, was from Dwarka, Gujarat. There is no evidence of his blood relation with the Bhai. Boasting, he said had he been PM of India in 1971, he would have ‘taken Kartarpur Sahib from Pakistan’ – that was not part of military operations. He talked about Sikh links with the Ram Temple at Ayodhya which are based on a misinterpretation of secondary texts. He alleged all INDIA bloc allies have fueled separatism in Panjab and said political parties siding with INC are guilty of 1984 Sikh genocide which is guilt by association with INC, while BJP supported INC’s decisions in 1984. At Patiala, Modi was campaigning for four-time ex-INC MP Preneet Kaur. However, her husband Captain Amarinder Singh, also ex-CM Panjab from INC, was missing from the stage, allegedly unwell. In Gurdaspur, Modi did not wear a turban. A night before his rally, police detained major farmer leaders from the area at their homes. Appropriating the keywords that guided the Farmers’ Protests 2020-21, Panjab BJP head Sunil Jakhar said that with PM Modi, fasal (crops) and nasal (future generations) are secure. Later, the laborers that had been promised payment for attending Modi’s rallies complained about non-payment. Panjab goes to poll on 1 Jun.

On 25 May, SAD expelled senior leader Adesh Partap Singh Kairon from the primary membership of the party for indulging in anti-party activities. The decision was taken following a complaint from SAD’s Khadoor Sahib candidate Virsa Singh Valtoha. Valtoha has hailed the decision, but former SAD members who rebelled and were brought Sukhdev Singh Dhindsa and Jagir Kaur back to the party have questioned the decision. In the short run, the expulsion will benefit independent candidate Amritpal Singh, and in the long run Bikram Singh Majithia would be the only big SAD leader in the Majha region (north Panjab). On 23 May, CM Bhagwant Mann faced protests in Mansa and Maur when he went to campaign. The protests were against restrictions police placed on shopkeepers being asked to close shops but the anger goes deeper over lack of infrastructure and public facilities. After two years of AAP rule, people are asking questions over unfulfilled promises: solving drug abuse within months, ₹2,500 per month old age pension, ₹1,000 per month aid to women, citizens being excluded from cheap rations list, and receiving wheat flour instead of wheat under the National Food Security Act. PM Modi keeps reminding people about his free ration scheme for 800M Indians, but in Panjab it is no different than photos of CM Mann with ‘sponsored by’ printed on ration bags, or photos of former SAD CM Parkash Singh Badal printed on hearse vans and girl students’ bicycles. Meanwhile, out of 328 candidates in fray, 22 have declared assets worth more than $1.2M in their poll affidavits. Also, there are only 6 women fielded by the five major political parties.  

Addressing a rally in Khetla village in the Sangrur constituency on 18 May, INC candidate Sukhpal Singh Khaira called for a law which would bar a migrant from buying land or becoming voters or getting govt. jobs if that person does not fulfill certain state-stipulated conditions. Khaira expressed concern over Panjabis’ increasing exodus to foreign countries, claiming that if the trend continues, Panjab’s natives would become a minority in the state. Khaira, a three-term Member of Legislative Assembly, has repeated his remarks at his subsequent rallies, and drawn sharp criticism from the Panjab-ruling AAP and the India-ruling BJP over it. On 21 May, PM Modi, without naming Khaira, told a rally in Bihar’s Maharajganj: ‘They [INDIA bloc] are insulting Bihar people.  A Congress leader says people from Bihar should be boycotted, shouldn’t be given rights in Panjab or allowed to buy a house there, but the royal family [Gandhis] keeps mum over it. Their mind is full of such hatred.’ Khaira accused PM Modi of ‘twisting’ his remarks, denying that he mentioned Biharis or called for a migrants’ boycott. ‘We have no objection if any non-Panjabi wants to earn a livelihood in Panjab but if they want to settle down permanently they should fulfill conditions similar to Himachal Pradesh Tenancy Act 1972 or in Uttarakhand and Gujarat. This is imperative as our demographic situation is in danger due to massive migration of Panjabis worldwide,’ he said. CM Mann said, ‘It is not correct to demand such an Act as Panjabis believe in Sarbat da Bhala (prosperity for all).

In response to the Indian Supreme Court's (SC) query on why polling data for earlier phases was not published, the Election Commission of India (ECI) on 22 May told the Court there is no legal mandate to publish final authenticated data of voter turnout in all polling stations (SDW Vol. 2 Issue 21, Story 1). Recently elected President of the Supreme Court Bar Council, Kapil Sibal asked, ‘What is the problem with revealing the number of votes cast? How is it a secret affair? This is not a matter of state security. Does this threaten national security?’ There is also the concern that not only percentages but real numbers of voters also declined in at least 115 (27%) constituencies up to the fifth phase of voting. It is unparalleled in India’s electoral history that in such a large number of constituencies, there is a decline in total voters from the previous election held five years ago. On 24 May, the SC declined to push the ECI to publish numbers. ‘We should also keep in mind the ground realities and not overburden the EC during the elections that too by changing the process mid-way,’ said the judgment. However, on 25 May, the ECI on its own released the numbers. Now political parties are checking if the numbers add up. In Panjab, given the scorching heat, BJP chief Sunil Jakhar has requested the ECI to extend voting hours. The Election Commission Panjab has made public a phone number from which voters can in real-time find out the wait at each booth and plan their vote accordingly.

Recently, the Enforcement Directorate (ED) told the Indian Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) that AAP received $850K as foreign funds from 2014 to 2022 and allegedly violated a number of laws. AAP violated the Foreign Contribution Regulation Act (FCRA), the Representation of People Act (RPA), and the Indian Penal Code (IPC). While the ED had submitted a dossier on AAP in August 2023, the fresh communication is based on recovery of documents and emails during a drugs-linked money laundering probe against former Panjab AAP MLA Sukhpal Singh Khaira and others. Khaira is contesting these elections as an INC candidate from Sangrur in Panjab. ED claimed  multiple donors from the US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Oman used the same passport numbers, e-mail IDs, mobile numbers, and credit cards to donate to AAP. AAP dismissed the ED's allegations. Lawyer Harvinder Singh Phoolka, who was part of AAP in 2014, has dissociated himself from the investigation, and stated, ‘I had made clear to AAP that I will not participate in any fundraising for the party. My visit to Canada was as a human rights activist and not for fund raising for the party. None of my addresses were ticketed, nor was any call for fundraising made.’ Another social activist from France, Iqbal Singh Bhatti has also denied involvement in AAP’s funding. Bhatti’s organization Aurore Dawn either sends bodies of Indians killed in France back home or performs last rites in France. Over the past 20 years, Aurore Dawn has handled 371 bodies, of which 122 were cremated in France (SDW Vol. 2 Issue 14, Story 3).

In Financial Year (FY) 2023-24, India has recorded a trade deficit — the difference between imports and exports — with nine of its top ten trading partners. They include China, Russia, Singapore, and Korea. The trade deficit with China rose to $85B, Russia to $57.2B, Korea to $14.71B, and Hong Kong to $12.2B in FY 2023-24. The data also showed that the deficit with China, Russia, Korea, and Hong Kong increased in the last fiscal year compared to 2022-23, while the trade gap with the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Indonesia, and Iraq narrowed. China has emerged as India's largest trading partner with $118.4B, edging past the US. The bilateral trade between India and the US stood at $118.28B. To a great extent, this explains why PM Modi has not been able to name China as the aggressor though there have been skirmishes involving Sikh soldiers between the troops of both nations and the Chinese have occupied Indian land. Meanwhile, on 22 May, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) approved a dividend of $25B for the Indian govt. for FY 2023-24. This marks a significant increase of around 141% compared to FY 2022-23. The RBI has also raised the Contingency Risk Buffer (CRB) to 6.5% from its previous level of 6%. According to interim budget documents for the ongoing financial year, the Indian govt. budgeted a dividend of $12.21B from the RBI, Public Sector Banks, and other financial institutions. This huge payout will help whoever forms the next govt. in India.

According to evidence reported in the Financial Times (FT), the Adani Group passed off low-quality coal as far more expensive cleaner fuel in transactions with an Indian state power utility. This report shines new light on allegations of a long-running coal scam. The documents, secured by the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) and reviewed by the FT, add a potential environmental dimension to accusations of corruption associated with the Indian conglomerate. They suggest that Adani may have fraudulently obtained bumper profits at the expense of air quality, since using low-grade coal for power means burning more of the fuel. In January 2014, the Adani Group bought low-grade coal from an Indonesian company at an alleged cost of $28 per metric tonne (MT). The same shipment was then sold to the Chennai-based Tamil Nadu Generation and Distribution Corporation (Tangedco) as high-quality coal for an average price of $91.91 per MT. Due to this, not only did the Adani Group make a huge profit, but it also harmed the environment due to the burning of low-grade coal by the power-generating company (SDW Vol. 1 Issue 5, Story 6).The Adani Group denied all allegations and said the coal was thoroughly tested. An international consortium of 21 groups has written to the Chief Justice of India and requested the Supreme Court to speedily resolve the pending case filed by the Directorate of Revenue Intelligence, investigating Adani Group firms for alleged overvaluation of Indonesian coal imports. Meanwhile in Panjab, with rising mercury, power demand has gone up to 16,500MW from 15,325MW last year.

On 22 May, the Panjab Vigilance Bureau (VB) registered a First information Report (FIR) against 26 persons, including Managing Editor of the Ajit Group of Publications Barjinder Singh Hamdard and Indian Administrative Services officer Vinay Bublani. The case is on the misappropriation of $3.2M in the construction of the $37M Jang-e-Azadi Memorial project at Kartarpur. Spread over 25 acres, the mega project was initiated by the SAD-BJP govt. Hamdard was instrumental in the conception and construction of the project since 2012 but quit as member secretary of the Jang-e-Azadi Memorial Foundation and as its managing committee president in April 2023 after the VB started the investigation into the matter. The VB has arrested 15 persons — Ludhiana-based builder Deepak Singal and 14 officials of the PWD — in connection with the case. Meanwhile, Hamdard has gotten a relief from the Punjab and Haryana High Court for a week. Bublani is currently the Director General school education. He is absconding. Several political leaders have come in support of Barjinder Singh Hamdard. Leader of Opposition in Panjab Assembly Partap Bajwa reached out to the Election Commission of India, urging them to issue directions to the govt. to prevent retaliatory action against Hamdard. ‘This is a worrying trend of using state machinery to suppress the voice of the media,’ he said. Panjab BJP head Sunil Jakhar also wrote to ECI alleging the Panjab govt. was persecuting Hamdard because he did not give in to their pressure to publish promotional propaganda in his newspaper. On 23 May, the ECI sought a report from Panjab Chief Secretary on the FIR registered by VB in Jang-e-Azadi Memorial case.

Non-resident Indians (NRIs) — who used to book tickets en masse for Panjab and backed candidates through several elections in past decades — are staying away from campaigning for parliamentary elections. Even though, to woo NRIs, travel agents are offering discounts on air fares, administration is focussing on them. Many NRIs say they are disillusioned over not much having been done to safeguard their interests — mainly safety of landholdings and properties back home in Panjab. Successive govts. have tried to win over the NRIs by holding NRI Sammelans (Meets), but these have failed to win their confidence as actual problems still exist. NRIs who hail from Panjab took interest in 2012 assembly elections when then SAD CM Parkash Singh Badal’s estranged nephew Manpreet Badal had formed the People’s Party of Punjab. In the 2014 parliamentary elections, many NRIs made a beeline to support the AAP and established its units in Canada, USA, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK. These units, apart from providing physical and moral support, also provided financial support. In the 2017 assembly polls, NRIs had taken interest, but after that their interest started waning. Glendale, US-based Karmjit Singh Dhaliwal said, ‘We had campaigned for AAP in 2014 and 2017 but supported the INC in 2019. Now we feel, all are the same when it comes to solving issues of NRIs. Panjab is plagued by extortions and youth dying of rampant drug addiction. These views have been echoed by hundreds of NRIs in WhatsApp groups, other channels and their occasional meetings at Gurdwaras [Sikh place of learning and worship] on Sundays.’

A narrative of change in the national govt. is sweeping through the lone Muslim-dominated town of Panjab — Malerkotla. The Malerkotla Assembly segment of the Sangrur parliamentary constituency in the past voted twice for AAP’s current CM Mann and SAD (Amritsar) chief Simranjit Singh Mann in the 2022 Lok Sabha (lower house) by-election. This time, however, people in the town have decided to vote for a party that does not divide people. ‘We want to eat with our Hindu brethren on one plate. We have been living in complete harmony with them all these decades. But the BJP is playing divisive politics. The mangalsutra (‘auspicious thread’ necklace with often gold pendant worn by married Hindu women) statement by PM Modi smacks of the wedge they intend to create,’ said Mohammad Jameel of Qila Rehmatgarh in Malerkotla. ‘We chose Simranjit Singh Mann because we love him. He has been a huge support to us. But now, we want a change in Delhi. We want to vote for a party which can take over the reins of the country. Bhagwant Mann is a single-man force, so we will vote for the INC,’ he added. Mohammad Nazeer, another resident, who drives an auto rickshaw for a living, said, ‘Our forefathers have been living in India since times immemorial. Now, we are living here. We chose to live here even after the Partition (Division of India and Pakistan in 1947). We now feel like strangers in our own country. My forefathers are buried in Malerkotla. I will also die and be buried here. Where will we go now? We want to remain happily here. Please do not support forces vying to turn us out’ (SDW Vol. 2 Issue 14, Story 10).