Trump Announces Indo-Pak Ceasefire; Pre-empts Modi’s Address

On 10 Apr, the fourth day of the rapidly escalating India-Pakistan conflict, US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire on X. He followed up with a longer announcement promising ‘increased trade’ with both countries. Soon, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also announced the declaration of a ceasefire and said, ‘I am pleased to announce the Governments of India and Pakistan have agreed to an immediate ceasefire and to start talks on a broad set of issues at a neutral site.’ The announcements show the US is ready to intervene in the affairs of both countries. This is unprecedented in India’s history because instead of India or Pakistan, a third-party announced the ceasefire while it was not even known if the US was mediating talks between them. Even more so, India has always maintained it will not talk to Pakistan until it stops terrorism in their country, and Kashmir remains a bilateral issue between them. In the past, India has repeatedly asserted it will not accept third-party intervention. Later that evening, Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri confirmed the ceasefire. Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif called the ceasefire announcement a victory for Pakistan. On 12 May, Indian PM Narendra Modi was to ‘address the nation’ for the first time since the 22 Apr Pahalgam attack which sparked India’s attack on Pakistan’s ‘terror infrastructure’ and led to hostilities between them. However, Trump pre-empted Modi’s speech when he spoke at the White House. He said, ‘If you don't stop it (the war), we are not going to do any trade (with you) … we stopped a nuclear conflict, millions of people could have died.’ Trump rightly points at both countries’ nuclear arsenal, however India’s principal opposition party, the Indian National Congress (INC) seems unmindful of it. Without acknowledging how both countries were on the brink of disaster, INC is now questioning the term ‘ceasefire’ because this was not a ‘formal war.’ In his speech Modi thanked India’s armed forces, intelligence agencies, and scientists. Meanwhile, On 9 May, despite India’s objection, the International Monetary Fund sanctioned a USD 1.3B loan to Pakistan (earlier coverage).

After India’s 6-7 May night’s Operation Sindoor (vermilion marker for married Hindu women), on 9 May, Akal Takht (Eternal Throne, AT) acting Jathedar (leader) Giani Kuldeep Singh Gargajj held Ardas (prayers) ‘for peace in South Asia’ at Takht (throne) Kesgarh Sahib in Anandpur Sahib. The same day, as Sikh regiments moved to western borders, soldiers performed prayers to keep their Sikh flags–termed Khalistani by Hindutva forces when they label Sikhs anti-national–flying high. As conflict between India and Pakistan escalated, the veterans in Panjab affirmed their readiness to take on tasks the Indian Army needed them to perform, including wielding firearms and digging bunkers. The Shiromani Gurdwara Parbandhak Committee (SGPC) began relocating saroops (tome) of Guru Granth Sahib from Gurdwaras in the border belts of Gurdaspur and Tarn Taran to safer Gurdwaras (Sikh place of learning and worship). On 8 May, after the Indian Home Ministry closed the Kartarpur Corridor, initially ‘for today’ and then indefinitely, forcing 150 Sikh pilgrims at the integrated check post to turn back. Concurrently, the Indian Press Information Bureau (PIB) Fact Check Unit separately denied social media claims that India had used drones to hit Gurdwara Nankana Sahib in Pakistan. PIB called the video fake and intended to incite communal discord. In Jammu & Kashmir, firing from across Line of Control on 7–8 May damaged Poonch’s Sri Guru Singh Sabha Gurdwara and killed at least four Sikhs including ragi (hymn singer) Amrik Singh. 15 civilians and 1 soldier died over the 12-hour bombardment. AT Jathedar Giani Gargajj condemned the attack. SGPC officials visited injured Sikhs who were brought to Amritsar. For Poonch residents, in a state of shock, the shelling brought memories of the Kargil war (1999). Meanwhile, farmers union Bharatiya Kisan Union (Ekta Ugrahan) and various civilian organizations made a call: ‘No War, Only Peace.’ The Sikh response to the hysteria that gripped India has been distinct: they prayed for peace but prepared for war. Being on the borders, they understand their situation and the impact of war very differently from mainland India (earlier coverage).

On the night of 6-7 May, under Operation Sindoor (vermilion marker for married Hindu women), India launched a targeted attack on 9 Pakistan locations claiming these were ‘terror infrastructure’ sites. Pakistan denied involvement in the 22 Apr Pahalgam attack on tourists. Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said, India will ‘suffer consequences’ of the ‘cowardly attack’. Pakistan retaliation started on 8 May targeting Indian air bases and military camps with drones in the northern and western sectors—Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) and Panjab. Though India repulsed them with the Russian-made S-400 defence system, the conflict escalated quickly over the next three days when Pakistan used Fatah II missiles. India used BrahMos missiles to target Pakistan air fields. Before the armed conflict, people in Panjab’s villages along the International Border had been expressing their dejection over the growing war hysteria in the rest of India. They knew Panjab is the battlefield for the war with Pakistan and started panic buying of groceries. After missile debris landed in Jethuwal and Makhan Windi, Ferozepur on 8 May, despite no official orders, villagers started evacuating. Seven border police districts mapped underground parkings, school basements, Gurdwaras (Sikh place of learning and worship), and other covered places for possible shelter. The Shiromani Gurdwara Parbandhak Committeeoffered food and shelter to those evacuating from the border areas. In J&K, Sikh and Gujjar-Bakarwal volunteers used tractors and private cars to evacuate families under fire along the Line of Control, supplying food, water and bedding. Indian Panjab cabinet minister Aman Arora said all frontier districts remain on high alert and public events stand cancelled. Pakistan’s Panjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz declared a provincial emergency, closed schools, and recalled medical staff. For three nights, border cities and villages remained under blackout while drone, loitering munition, and missile attacks continued from both sides. Three family members suffered severe burns when a drone hit a Ferozepur residence on 9 May, one has died. Heavy shelling on 9-10 May damaged houses, Temples, and a Gurdwara in Rajouri and Poonch where officials feared multiple civilian deaths (earlier coverage).

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi named India’s attack on Pakistan ‘terrorist infrastructure’ Operation Sindoor. Sindoor is the vermillion marker for married Hindu women; it was a deliberate invocation of grief and memory of the tourists killed in the Pahalgam attack on 22 Apr. Most of the 28 male victims had been targeted and shot for being Hindu. The name was, however, a typical, patriarchal, response from the Hindutva right-wing which posits itself as the defender of women’s honor. In this case the subtext was that a woman’s honor is only related to her husband and the country shall avenge the loss. However, the men who were killed were also brothers, sons, and fathers. Only married women in Indian states of Bihar—due for elections soon—Madhya Pradesh, and Jharkhand wear sindoor. India released the news of the attack on 7 May morning with a logo of the Operation. Normally groups, institutions, battalions, and so on have logos. It is ironic, but for conflicts, logos are used only in video games, highlighting the heavily propagandized messaging of the conflict. Through the conflict, a huge misinformation war started on various social media forums and Indian television with its ludicrous claims. This made real information very hard to come by even though the Indian Ministry of Defence had its dedicated sites. One of the misinformation pieces from a government of Pakistan’s X handle was: ‘India has launched six ballistic missiles from Adampur. Five landed on Amritsar, one fell back on Adampur.’ This led to shock among Sikhs that Darbar Sahib (Golden Temple) was attacked by India. It had to be rebutted by India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri. India went on to ask X to ban 8,000 accounts. Even the news websiteThe Wire which is neutral in its reporting was briefly banned. Meanwhile, Reliance Industries owned by Anil Ambani emerged as one of the vultures of the Operation Sindoor when it applied to trademark the name for entertainment programs in the future. It later withdrew but other applicants remained in fray, some of them dummies (earlier coverage).

On 7 May morning, a plane crashed at village Akali Khurd in Bathinda, Panjab. The Panjab police sealed the area and until now there is no confirmation to which country the plane belonged. Three fighter jets crashed in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K). Pakistan claims it shot down 3 Rafale Planes, 1 SU-30, and 1 MIG-29 but there is no confirmation by the India. A French intelligence source has said Pakistan downed a Rafale. Pakistan was using the Chinese J-10 fighters and PL-15 missiles against Indian jets. Meanwhile the Rafale stocks have fallen 7% and Chengdu Aircraft Corporation—the Chinese aerospace company behind the J-10 fighter jets—has gone up 20%. The claims about 8 Pakistan air bases destroyed by India have not been confirmed. Countries may not release all details of defence losses but on humanitarian grounds they must release the names of all soldiers and civilians killed in the conflict. India maintains its reason to attack Pakistan was the terror attack on tourists in Pahalgam on 22 Apr. However, India is yet to share evidence linking the Pahalgam attack to Pakistan. On 24 Apr, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had said from Madhubani, Bihar, ‘India will identify, track, and punish every terrorist and their backers. We will pursue them to the ends of the Earth.’ After this India launched Operation Sindoor (vermilion marker for married Hindu women) on the night of May 6-7. After four days of escalating conflict, on 10 May, the US called for a ceasefire. However, after the ceasefire was announced, blackouts were imposed in Panjab. On 12 May after PM Modi addressed the nation, drones trespassed the Line of Control in J&K. In his address, PM Modi said, ‘Our declared policy remains: if talks are to happen with Pakistan, they will only be on terrorism. And if talks happen with Pakistan, they will be about Pakistan Occupied Kashmir.’ A terrorist attack took place on 13 May at Shopian, J&K. India has not said anything either on the terrorist attack or trade talks with the US which President Trump claimed would ensure peace between India and Pakistan.

On 7 May, as Panjab geared up to protect itself from external hostilities, the Punjab and Haryana High Court (PHHC) restrained the Panjab government and its police force from interfering with the operations of the Bhakra Nangal Dam, which is under the jurisdiction of the Bhakra Beas Management Board (BBMB) which is under union govt, not state. BBMB had alleged that Panjab Police had forcibly taken control of dam operations following a directive to release 8.5K cusecs of water to Haryana and other states. A division bench comprising PHHC Chief Justice Sheel Nagu and Justice Sumeet Goel expressed serious concern over the conduct of the Panjab administration, comparing the situation to actions taken against Pakistan through abeyance of the Indus Water Treaty. 'We are doing this to our enemy country. Let us not do this within our states.' The bench said if Panjab disagrees with any decisions taken by BBMB, it should approach the union govt. under the provisions of the BBMB rules. The judges noted that no such representation had been made by the Panjab govt. so far. On 8 May, Panjab minister Harjot Singh Bains locked BBMB Chairman Manoj Tripathi for two hours at the dam’s guest house and stopped him from releasing the water additional 4.5K cusecs of water to Haryana. Panjab has already agreed to release 4K cusecs of drinking water on humanitarian grounds. Panjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Singh Mann also rushed to Nangal. When contacted, BBMB officials refused to comment on the incident. However, on 10 May Mann ordered release of additional water to Rajasthan to cater to the needs of the Army. In a statement, Mann said Rajasthan govt. had sought more water from the quota of Panjab as the military deployed on the Rajasthan border needed additional water. On 11 May, Mann said in a post: ‘on the one hand Panjab is standing to defend its borders, on the other Haryana is operating on provocation by the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) union govt.’ This indeed raises a question on BJP’s ‘nationalist’ claims (earlier coverage).

Following India’s 23 Apr decision to keep the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) in abeyance, World Bank president Ajay Singh Banga said, ‘The Treaty is not suspended, it is technically called ‘abeyance’ is how the India government worded it. There is no provision in the Treaty to allow for suspension. It either needs to be gone or it needs to be replaced.’ He added, the Bank can only act as a facilitator and cannot force India to reverse its decision. On 26 Apr, Pakistan reported that India released about 22K cusecs into the river Jhelum at Chakothi without prior notice, causing a sudden rise in Muzaffarabad in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK). POK Deputy Commissioner Mudassar Farooq described it as a manageable low-level flood. The Pakistan State Disaster Management Authority confirmed no advance warning was received. The Pakistan Indus River System Authority (IRSA) told a 5 May advisory committee that reduced river Chenab inflows at Marala headworks, attributed to short upstream supplies from India, threaten irrigation for early summer crops from until 10 Jun and could affect late summer crops through September, projecting a 7% to 21% seasonal shortage to be offset by reservoir releases. On 8 May India opened two spillway gates at the Baglihar hydro station in Ramban district and three at Salal dam in Reasi after rainfall raised reservoir levels. Indian authorities state that placing IWT under abeyance removes the requirement to inform Pakistan of interventions on western rivers and releases or curbs will be made according to domestic operational needs. Pakistani officials accuse India of weaponizing water and say uncoordinated releases or cuts endanger civilian supplies and violate transboundary norms. Farmers in Pakistan’s Panjab and Sindh warn that continued Chenab shortfalls could reduce yields of cotton, rice, and sugarcane. Pakistan’s IRSA plans ongoing monitoring and may seek further reservoir use to limit crop losses. Diplomatic relations remain tense, with Islamabad calling for treaty compliance and New Delhi maintaining that current measures are lawful while IWT is held in abeyance (earlier coverage).

On 6 May, Panjab farmers’ organizations including Samyukt Kisan Morcha and Bharatiya Kisan Union (Ekta Ugrahan; BKU) opposed the new India–United Kingdom Free Trade Agreement. They stated that duty cuts will let British lamb, salmon, soft drinks, chocolate, biscuits, medical devices, cosmetics, electrical machinery, and aerospace goods enter India without restriction, threatening incomes of farmers, fish workers, and small and medium food processors. All India Kisan Sabha president Ashok Dhawale said previous bilateral and multilateral pacts hurt agriculture and small industry and argued that the latest treaty, signed without parliamentary scrutiny, would deepen the realization crisis in both sectors by allowing international finance capital wider access. He urged the union government to withdraw immediately from the agreement and to halt parallel negotiations with the US. BKU (Ekta Ugrahan) coordinator Pavel Kussa said the pact would tighten an ‘imperialist grip’ on the economy by encouraging further dumping of foreign goods, comparing the move to colonial-era trade practices. Kussa accused the govt. of delivering national markets to outside powers while promoting domestic nationalism. US officials said India is seeking separate terms by offering to narrow its average tariff gap with the US to below 4% from nearly 13%. This will be effective if US President Donald Trump grants India an exemption from current and potential tariff hikes imposed under his reciprocal duties program. The proposal would eliminate duties on 60% of tariff lines in an initial phase and give preferential access on almost 90% of US goods. India also wants treatment equal to close US allies in critical technology fields including artificial intelligence, telecom, biotechnology, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. India has agreed to ease export regulations on the US aircraft and parts, luxury cars, electric vehicles, telecom hardware, medical devices, hydrocarbons, wines, whiskey, berries, prunes, certain chemicals, and animal feed. Officials said a delegation could travel to Washington, DC later this month and Union Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal may join if schedules permit.

On 9 May, after an unusual delay, the Indian union government finally released official estimates of the likely human toll of the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021. That year, nearly 2.1 million more Indians died than was expected based on past trends. The data is based on the demographic survey done under the Civil Registration System (CRS). CRS data shows that between 2018 and 2020 around 8.1M Indians died annually. But in 2021, this reached 10.2M. The difference is called ‘excess deaths’, a metric that becomes key during large-scale unexpected loss of life. Not all these deaths can be attributed to COVID-19, but this is the best possible number when the pandemic sent the healthcare system into chaos, making counting difficult. Critics also alleged deliberate underreporting by authorities. In 2021, the Union Health Ministry, using data from state govts., attributed 330K deaths to COVID-19. The new number of excess deaths is 6.4 times higher. The ratio can be a measure of the extent of undercounting—deliberate or not. Among large states, the ratio is the worst for Gujarat (35x ), Madhya Pradesh (20x), Rajasthan, Bihar, West Bengal (all 14x), Jharkhand (13x) and Andhra Pradesh (11x). Panjab saw a significant rise in deaths with 54,560 more fatalities recorded (5.6x). This data makes even the World Health Organization figure of 4.7M excess deaths, which the union govt. had so vehemently opposed and attempted to stall, look like an underestimation. Earlier excess death estimates by private agencies and researchers, several times higher than the official count, were also junked by the union govt. A 2023 study by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) had concluded there is no link between the vaccine and sudden death but given ICMR’s complicity in keeping the real COVID-19 toll numbers under wraps, there may be a need for a more credible, preferably non-government-funded examination into this crucial question (earlier coverage).

A new Panjabi movie on the 1914 Komagata Maru episode, Guru Nanak Jahaj, has been reviewed by historian-commentator Harjeshwar Singh as a meticulous retelling of Gurdit Singh’s attempt to land migrants from undivided Panjab in Canada and their clash with colonial racism. The film shows customs officer William Hopkinson, collaborator Bela Singh, and Ghadarite activist Mewa Singh at odds over the passengers’ fate. It depicts white supremacist hostility in Vancouver and follows parallel scenes of daily life for early Panjabi settlers. Harjeshwar highlights the production’s attention to period costumes, dialects, sets, and its choice to show collaborators as complex rather than purely villainous. He notes that Panjabi cinema has lately moved beyond formula comedies and romances, citing this title and the recent working-class drama Mitran Da Challeya Truck Ni (Friend’s Truck Rolls) as signs of broader themes taking hold. While praising authenticity, he points out that the screenplay is slow in places yet sees the project as a tide-turner for regional filmmaking. A parallel Canadian production is also foregrounding Panjabi Sikh history in Canada. The Unknown Soldier—a short film scheduled for release next year—is co-directed by Wilfrid Laurier University graduates Aviel Kurulkar and Javier Alfaro; it was financed through regional fundraising. The story follows a young Sikh who, despite conflict with his father, enlists to fight for Canada in the First World War (WW1) and must reconcile religious identity with battlefield reality. Lead actor Ajinkya Dhage prepared by growing a beard and learning to tie the turban. Filming used locations across southwestern Ontario, including a full-scale replica trench and authentic WW1 uniforms and weapons supplied by the Canadian Historical Society in Chatham. Research trips included the Remembrance Day ceremony at the Kitchener grave of Private Buckam Singh, the only known Sikh Canadian casualty grave from that war. Producers aim to premiere the film at the Toronto International Film Festival and to widen awareness of Panjabi Sikh roles in Canada’s military past.