India Saw 2.1M More COVID-19 Deaths; 54,560 in Panjab

On 9 May, after an unusual delay, the Indian union government finally released official estimates of the likely human toll of the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021. That year, nearly 2.1 million more Indians died than was expected based on past trends. The data is based on the demographic survey done under the Civil Registration System (CRS). CRS data shows that between 2018 and 2020 around 8.1M Indians died annually. But in 2021, this reached 10.2M. The difference is called ‘excess deaths’, a metric that becomes key during large-scale unexpected loss of life. Not all these deaths can be attributed to COVID-19, but this is the best possible number when the pandemic sent the healthcare system into chaos, making counting difficult. Critics also alleged deliberate underreporting by authorities. In 2021, the Union Health Ministry, using data from state govts., attributed 330K deaths to COVID-19. The new number of excess deaths is 6.4 times higher. The ratio can be a measure of the extent of undercounting—deliberate or not. Among large states, the ratio is the worst for Gujarat (35x ), Madhya Pradesh (20x), Rajasthan, Bihar, West Bengal (all 14x), Jharkhand (13x) and Andhra Pradesh (11x). Panjab saw a significant rise in deaths with 54,560 more fatalities recorded (5.6x). This data makes even the World Health Organization figure of 4.7M excess deaths, which the union govt. had so vehemently opposed and attempted to stall, look like an underestimation. Earlier excess death estimates by private agencies and researchers, several times higher than the official count, were also junked by the union govt. A 2023 study by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) had concluded there is no link between the vaccine and sudden death but given ICMR’s complicity in keeping the real COVID-19 toll numbers under wraps, there may be a need for a more credible, preferably non-government-funded examination into this crucial question (earlier coverage).